So maybe there’s some truth to my mom’s advice, “Don’t go to the grocery store at the first of the month.”

A recent study showed that 122,877 of West Virginia’s estimated 743,064 households receive food stamps. This is this the highest level of participation in 30 years.

West Virginia is a beautiful state that has rolling hills, beautiful rivers, and genuine people.  But they’ve always been lacking modern business development.  Just within the last few years, West Virginia changed their welcome sign from, “West Virginia: Wild and Wonderful” to “West Virginia: Open to Business.” Everyday as I cross over the Ohio River to enter Parkersburg, WV for my groceries, a bottle of wine, or a little shopping I see the sign as a subtle attempt to welcome business development into one of the poorest states in the country.  Parkersburg clearly has more business than my sleepy town across the river, but driving two miles outside of the Parkersburg city limits really limits one’s purchasing possibilities.  The closest sign of development is not for another 50 minutes to Ripley, WV and then another 40 minutes to Charleston.  And even in those towns, the economy exists because I-77 runs through the town.

I think education is the most valuable asset for West Virginia and other states and nations who have high levels of poverty. Education increases production possibilities more than any other factor. I notice an incredible difference in education levels in West Virginia and surrounding Appalachian communities between those on food stamps and those who are making it on their own.  Education in these Appalachian regions does not mean a Bachelor’s or Master’s degree from a prestigious Northeastern University.  Education can be from a vocational school, an apprenticeship in a union, or a two-year Associates degree.  It is important for the good people of West Virginia to take advantage of these opportunities that are abundant in this region.  Their government aid should not come in the form of food stamps. Instead, their government aid should be along the lines of pell grants, Sallie Mae loans, and education grants.

Education is the best way to empower citizens, and I think that West Virginia needs to encourage their citizens to better themselves through education.  It would increase the self worth of their citizenry and have lasting effects on the West Virginia economy. 

So, instead of welcoming visitors to West Virginia by saying, “Open for Business,” they should try to create their own business by educating their workforce and empowering their citizens.

Obama supporters are placing the blame on Hillary Clinton for dividing their party by staying in the race, just as Clinton’s supporters also are blaming the Obama camp for provoking this division. Meanwhile, us Republicans are sitting back laughing at the situation while we watch the Democrats duke it out all the way to the convention.

Everyone claims it will come down to the Superdelegates.  Take a look at some of my calculations. The CNN Election Center has the delegate total as the following:

Obama: 1629 total delegates, 1414 of which are pledged and 215 superdelegates.
Clinton: 1486 total delegates, 1243 are pledged and 243 superdelegates.

Then Edwards has 18 delegates floating around out there.

Just as a reminder, there are 4,047 total delegates to be won who will be voting in the Democratic National Convention. This includes 3,253 pledged delegates and 794 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,024. There are 596 pledged delegates left up for grabs and 336 superdelegates who have not yet pledged support for one candidate or the other.  This leaves Obama needing only 395 delegates to win the nomination, while Clinton struggles to gain 538 delegates.  Real Clear Politics has Obama up only 134 over Hillary, but for my purposes I am using the CNN tracker.

These numbers mean that Obama currently has 53% of the total allocated pledged delegates and only 46% of the superdelegates.  Lets pretend we use these percentages to forecast delegate totals. This gives Obama 316 pledged delegates and 154 superdelegates. This totals his delegate count to 2099. If the rest go to Hillary, she will come out with 1948. 

If the actual delegate count is relatively close to my numbers, there is no way that Hillary will drop out before the convention because she’ll think that she will be able to sway the superdelegates. Maybe that’s so; however, nobody has been talking about responsibility and potentially devastating effects that is in the superdelegates’ hands.

These superdelegates are supposed to be long time party activists and party officials.  They have this unpledged power because they are deemed to know the best direction for the Democratic Party.  If this is the case, I am wondering why they don’t all band together and say, listen Hillary and Barack, we’re supporting the delegate who has the most pledged delegates by the end of the primary season.  If they were truly looking out for the best interest of the Democrat Party, that is what they would do. Now, I am not politically naive and know that that could be a bad move for some of these superdelegates politically on a micro level. However, if the Democrats are so dead set that their policies and beliefs are the best ones for America, it should make complete sense for them to band together in an effort to unify their party.

Right now, McCain is a lucky man.  He has the luxury of sitting back and casually luring in the moderate Democrats who are tired of this party nonsense. You can see it in all the polls that he is inching ahead of both Democrat candidates. We all know that if the Democrat nominee is not decided until August 28, 2008 two months is not enough time to unite a bitterly divided party.  If I were Howard Dean, I think I’d be twisting the arms of the superdelegates to really do what is in the best interest of the party. But then again, most Democrats are too stubborn and clouded to realize this.

The last two weeks have been absolutely crazily insane with everything in which I’m involved, so I have not had much extra time to even read the news, let alone comment on world events.

But do not fear - I will be back shortly…just not today.

As of now, Real Clear Politics has Hillary showing a lead in Ohio and Rhode Island with Obama only winning Texas.

Rhode Island:
46% Clinton
35% Obama

Ohio:
46.8% Clinton
43%    Obama

Texas:
46.2% Obama
43%    Clinton

Well I’ve had my suspicions about this, but Gallup confirms that 58% of Republicans claim to be in excellent mental health while only 38% of Democrats can say the same.

I have a feeling that this has something to do with Republicans’ beliefs of individual worth & sovereignty, the emphasis we place on personal responsibility, and independence from safety-net government programs.

Thats my opinion, but those numbers are facts.

On the same stage I received my diploma, performed my senior showcase, and had countless cheerleading practices, Hillary Clinton addressed citizens of my town last night at 10:15PM appealing for their vote on next Tuesday’s election. 

I didn’t know people in Belpre stayed out past 10:00PM, but it looks like there was a decent showing.

There she is with Governor Ted Strickland and a few familiar faces behind her.  I like Governor Strickland a lot, he used to let me follow him around back when I was 11 and on through high school when he was still my Congressman.  I usually claim him as the one who got me interested in politics and consider myself lucky that he was tolerant of my interest as a young kid. 

Anyway, I want to know what the 1500 people packed in the Belpre High School gym last night think Hillary is going to do to help improve their life.

Belpre is home to about 6800 residents along the Ohio River in Southeastern Ohio.  Across the river is Parkersburg, West Virginia which consumes most of Belpre’s disposable income. Belpre is a dry town so there are no major restaurants, forcing weekend activity either across the river, or up the river to Marietta, Ohio.  The school system is small and getting smaller since it takes multiple times to get an operating levy passed, and provides only a few opportunities for advanced students.  Fewer kids usually go to college upon graduation than get married or go directly into the work force.  Recently about 10% or more join the military to serve our country.  The job market in Belpre consists of a few professional offices, but there are more pharmacies, gas stations, and used car lots than a town for 6800 would ever need.  Most people work at Kraton Polymers or another chemical plant on the river, or the Bureau of Public Debt (thanks to Senator Byrd) across the river. Belpre also is comprised of a growing elderly population, hence the need for pharmacies on every corner. So, in my opinion, what do the people of Belpre need right now? We need stronger schools, a stronger job market, and stronger health care and retirement systems.  What does Belpre NOT need right now? Hillary Clinton as President. Here’s why…

Hillary’s plan does nothing to empower American citizens.  Her plan for America is to provide a government that will provide for you. 

- She wants a Universal health care system that mandates every person buy health insurance and if you can’t afford it there will be government subsidies.
- It looks like the only jobs that she wants to create will be government jobs: infrastructure, “green collar,” etc.
- Increased regulation on the mortgage industry, credit cards, insurance companies, trade agreements, and China’s currency (whaaat?).
- Mandate businesses offer sick days to all employees and extend unemployment insurance.
- Tax profits on the pharmaceutical, oil, and gas industries. (See my previous article on Hillary and Obama taxing your retirement.)

Her plan for America tells me a few things.  She doesn’t want Americans to be self-reliant and independent like the Founding Fathers intended.  She wants us to depend on her government programs. Her plan for America is not pro-business or pro-growth. Even Business Week magazine says so.  Who would work if you can get everything you need by not working? Don’t have money for food? Get food stamps.  Don’t have insurance? The government will give it to you.  Need money to pay for heating? Hillary’s emergency energy assistance program will pay for it!  And I guess it doesn’t matter that she taxes the profits of big industries that we all have in our IRAs and portfolios since she’ll provide us with a retirement plan.  She allows no choice for individual choice, and she thinks that since the Bush government has failed that expanding it will only make us all better off. 

Belpre, Ohio’s needs are not far out of line of many small American towns. Many small towns are struggling to keep their identity in a changing world with global competition. But Hillary won’t help us whether we’re in small town America, suburban towns, or big cities.  She does not welcome free market initiatives, the very liberty that makes America great.  If America is manipulated into voting for Hillary by broad generalizations and politically charged talking points, we will lose the vibrancy of the American dream which is made possible because we live in a country that supports the free market, private initiative, and individual choice.  That may sound extreme, but I don’t think I’m being irrational. 

So before you cast your vote, think about which candidate will empower America to live the American dream, and I think you’ll find that Hillary Clinton is not that candidate.

I decided to venture down to Warwick on Monday evening to hear Mike Huckabee address Rhode Islanders and appeal for their vote.  It was an interesting crowd, and I only recognized a few faces who were there mostly out of curiousity like myself.  The majority of the crowd seemed to be average, working class Americans who were inspired by Huckabee’s American dream life and decided to support his candidacy. One man I talked to had even driven three hours from New York to hear Huckabee’s speech. 

This was the third time I’ve heard Huckabee speak in person, and like most politicians with comfortable talking points, it was the third time I’ve heard the same message. However, this time I started thinking about his platform and how it is ideally in line with many conservatives, yet it is not practical or realistic. 

Consider what defines him as a candidate.

- He supports a Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman.
- He believes in the Fair Tax which calls for repealing the 16th Amendment and will abolish the Internal Revenue Service.
- He also wants a Constitutional Amendment that protects the right to life.

During his speech in Warwick, these are the issues that he highlighted that make him stand apart from John McCain.  Mike Huckabee does have some beliefs that resonate with me and other conservatives. He supports a line-item veto, will make the Bush tax cuts permanent, will not set a time table for Iraq, wants to build a border fence, and believes in energy independence with free market solutions.  But it is not these issues that he talks about.  Most of these are very similar to John McCain’s platform, so he uses the extreme to distinguish himself.

The fact of the matter is that these three self-defining issues are not practical.  I am a Constitutionalist who believes that our constitution is not there to legislate morality, rather it is there to define our most basic fundamental liberties.  I agree with Mike Huckabee in that I am pro-life and do not think homosexual marriage should be allowed.  However, amending the Constitution should not be the vehicle to prevent this activity.  Changing this behavior starts with society and strong families.  In addition, amending the Constitution to include these amendments is nearly impossible.  This would require 2/3 vote of both the House and Senate, then 3/4 of the states to approve it.  Or, there could be a Constitutional Convention called by 2/3 of the states legislatures, but also this will need 3/4 of the states approval.  These are divisive issues and I do not think he has the slightest chance of getting it passed through our Democratic Congress and mostly Democratic state legislatures.  Mike Huckabee is as unrealistic as Obama’s platform of “hope,” whatever that might be.

Secondly, Mike Huckabee will not succeed in abolishing the IRS and implementing a Fair Tax.  This consumption tax and revenue neutral tax is a bad idea that will not fly with most Americans. He will face the same Constitutional difficulties of repealing the 16th Amendment that defines our income tax. So one would have to wonder if we would end up with an income tax and a consumption tax at 23%.  He says this will allow us to abolish the IRS but he is forgetting that someone will have to oversee who is spending what so that the monthly rebate checks for people below the poverty line and for all purchases of necessities are distributed properly.  This may not require a 67,000 page tax code, but it will require some tedious oversight and accurate record keeping.

I like Mike Huckabee a lot as a person and I, too, am inspired by him.  He is a product of the American dream. But I am also a realist and do not think he offers real solutions for America.  My ideology is not far out of line from his, but his methodology to enact it is not practical. 

I think most Americans have already realized this since he is all but out of the election right now. However, for my Huckabee friends in Rhode Island and Ohio who have yet to cast their vote, I hope you think again. 

Exxon Mobil $40.6 Billion
Chevron $18.7 Billion
ConocoPhillips $11.9 Billion

These numbers represent the 2007 profit of America’s top three oil companies. This alarms most Americans who feel cheated by paying $3 for a gallon of gas and live on tight budgets. But don’t worry, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will make it all better by taxing the profits on these big oil firms! They assure us that we’ll all feel a little better paying $3 a gallon as long as know big oil companies and high ranking executives are not making a profit off us!

But here some facts about oil and gas companies:
- The U.S. Oil and Gas Industry contributed $139 billion in GDP in 2002 and accounted for 1.5 million jobs in America, totalling $39.29 billion in income.
- The industry is already taxed at a rate of 38.3%.
- Other industries make higher profits. Banking profits 18 cents per US dollar, consumer services profits 10.1 cents per US dollar, software and services profit 9.9 cents per US dollar. Oil and Gas? 9.2 cents per US dollar.

A recent study by Robert Shapiro, undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs in President Clinton’s administration (yes, a Democrat), found that 55 million Americans with a median income of $68,700, 2,600 pension plans, and 45 million Americans’ IRAs, own shares in the oil and natural gas industry. These are fellow middle class people. So for all of you who cannot put two and two together, taxing big oil companies’ profits essentially taxes 55 million Americans, 2,600 pension plans, and 45 million IRAs who own these shares in their pension and retirement accounts.

Now look at these numbers:
Exxon Mobil $32.01 billion
Chevron $14.63 billion
ConocoPhillips $15.67 billion

This is the amount of dividends paid to their shareholders in 2000-2004 by Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and 2003-2004 by ConocoPhillips. If you increase the tax rate on these companies, dividends for each shareholder will automatically fall.

Big oil and natural gas companies have their shares divided as follows:

41% Pension and Retirement Accounts
29.5% Mutual Funds
23% Individual Investors
5% Institutional Investors
1.5% Corporate Investors

So, if you are one of those people who own stock in the oil industry, you may want to think again about supporting candidates who want to tax this industry. It will affect you! It would be a fallacy to think that your retirement will not see the affects of this. I’m merely presenting the facts, you can decide.

–
Sources:
http://64.233.169.104/search?=cache:3_hX95AynosJ:rpc.senate.gov/_files/Feb0706EnergyTaxPJMW.pdf+robert+shapiro+exxon+mobil&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=16&gl=us
http://energytomorrow.org/energy_issues/shapiro.html

Belpre, Ohio? or Batesville, Mississippi? 

Batesville, Mississippi. 

Although this guy may not be eloquent, I think he’s onto something…

I’ve been wondering what the most recent delegate count is on the Democrat side, so here it is:

Overall
Obama 1,168
Clinton 1,018

Superdelegate
Obama 189
Clinton 256

Total
Obama 1,384
Clinton 1,300

Obama appears to have the momentum right now, he just won his 10th state in a row with Wisconsin the other night.  If this goes to the convention, I have no doubt Hillary will pull a backroom deal to sway the superdelegates.  But going on numbers alone, it is still unclear who the Democrat nominee will be.