On vacation…

I will be on vacation until Labor Day weekend and will not be posting while I am away.  See you in September.

How the Republicans can win (or lose) ‘08

Fred Barnes had a very interesting article in the Wall Street Journal earlier this week where he outlined what it would take for a Republican victory in 2008. 

He cites three necessarities:

1.  Events must work in the favor of Republicans, specifically Iraq.

2.  The Democrats must screw up badly.

3.  Republicans must change their ways.

He writes,

Let’s start with events. The debate over whether a war gone bad in Iraq was the primary cause of sweeping Republican losses in last year’s midterm election will never be resolved. Clearly the war hurt, more than a little. Just as clearly, a turnaround in Iraq would help enormously.

But even if the “surge” is as successful as it appears it might be, there’s a problem. While public support has increased recently, the war still faces deep-seated opposition. There’s a widespread view that its cost in lives, money and national prestige has been too high. This won’t change overnight. Public opinion isn’t quite that fickle.

While he’s correct in asserting that a more positive turn in Iraq will not change public opinion overnight, this could change the opinion of those who have been a little on the fence over the war from day one.  Also, he is forgetting that the Democrats have made the war in Iraq a centerpiece of their platform since the 2006 elections.  If this starts turning to the better, the Democrats primary issue turns against them and their foreign policy initiatives become rather irrelevant.

He continues,

A spectacular Democratic blunder? Republicans shouldn’t count on it. Democrats have downplayed cultural issues like abortion and gun control that alienated voters in the past. They championed organized labor’s agenda, but the most egregious items (ending secret ballot certification elections and unionizing Transportation Security Administration employees) failed to pass and are now forgotten. Democrats tried mightily to force a troop drawdown in Iraq and failed there, too. This may revive, over the long term, their reputation for weakness on national security. For now, they’re OK.

There are traps Democrats must avoid. When Gen. Petraeus reports next month on progress in Iraq, it would be dangerous for them to question his truthfulness, as Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid already has, and dispute his advice. The general has far more credibility than they do. Nonetheless, if Gen. Petraeus voices optimism about winning in Iraq, Democrats may be irresistibly tempted to ignore him and press again for retreat. That’s one trap.

On fiscal issues, Democrats foolishly dismissed the president’s insistence on cutting $22 billion from overall discretionary spending, claiming it was a puny amount. To them, it is. To the public, it’s not. A veto war on spending bills is likely to work in Mr. Bush’s favor, though not if weak-willed congressional Republicans cut and run. Should it lead to a government shutdown–call it the shutdown trap–that would be all the more harmful to Democrats.

This Democratic Congress has the lowest approval rating in history, hovering around 18%.  People already do not have the confidence in our Congress as they should, but it is much easier to take blame on one person (the President) than a body of individuals.  The Democrats’ (and some Republicans’) main tactic has been to attack the President, therefore isolating themselves from his policy.  The President can’t get much through the Congress to allow his policies to work and show the Democrats that they are wrong on many of it, but the President could hope for strategic mistakes the Democrats make.  In addition, thus far the Democrat race for President has been much dirtier than the Republican race.  Many of the supporters of individual candidates have a very strong dislike toward the other candidates.  Obama supporters are not fond of Edwards supporters, Hillary supporters do not support Obama’s iniativies, etc. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will already have a lot of dirt scrounged up by the other candidates that will follow them into the general election and that nominee will have to work toward uniting the party behind them.  If the war is not going well, this could be all it takes, though.

Lastly,

The recipe for Republicans is to stop acting like, well, Republicans–that is, Republicans of recent vintage. In Congress, they’ve been soft on earmarks, the source of so much corruption. They practically invited Democrats to trump them on ethics and lobbying reform. And they’ve allowed their obsession with illegal immigrants to get out of hand. This drives away Hispanic voters and leaves the impression that Republicans are small-minded, ungenerous and nasty. The worst offenders are the presidential candidates, who would be wise to tone down their rhetoric on immigration.

As Karl Rove has noted, Republicans need a big idea. The best available is the one Mr. Bush abandoned: ownership. Allowing private investment of payroll taxes for Social Security would only be a start. An Ownership Society would allow individual Americans, rather than government, to control how and where their health care, public education, 401(k) and IRA funds are spent.

The Bush administration and Congresses in those years have abandoned many of the traditional conservative values that many Republicans still hold central to their belief system. Budget deficits and enormous spending habits alarm fiscally conservative Republicans, while pro-choice Republicans immediately isolate the pro-life Republicans who stand firmly on that issue. Security has been and will continue to be strong for the Republicans and ultimately acts as a unifying issue for most Republicans.  Fred was right on when he said that the big idea should be ownership.  Our Republican lawmakers abanded this idea and has left social security and health care for future generations to work out.  I strongly believe privatization is the best method for some of these reforms.  The Republicans need to return to one of their founding principles: importance of the individual.  Something like this has the potential of reviving the party.

Overall, the Republicans have their work cut out for them for 2008; however, I do not believe it is impossible.  I’ve said from day 1 that it depends on who each party nominates.  Both parties need somebody who can count on their base while attracting the vast amounts of independents out there.  The Democrat race so far is more exciting and has been more newsworthy than the Republican race, but all that will die down once the primary is over.  The Republicans have a lot to do, but in the end, they are more organized than the Democrats and have a proven ability to mobilize the party to success.

Quote of the Day

“Everything about this hiring stinks.” –RI Democratic Chairman Bill Lynch regarding Governor Carcieri hiring Kerry King as legal staff.

He’s so articulate.

Breaking News!!!

Norway is concerned that its national animal, the moose, is harming the climate by emitting an estimated 2,100 kilos of carbon dioxide a year through its belching and farting.

Norwegian newspapers, citing research from Norway’s technical university, said a motorist would have to drive 13,000 kilometers in a car to emit as much CO2 as a moose does in a year.

Thriving moose population with a dwindling climate situation or healthy climate with dwindling moose population? Looks like environmentalists have a dilemma on their hands…

Give me a break.

Local colleges receive national rankings

Providence Business News notes that Providence College, Brown University, and Roger Williams all were recognized in the U.S. News & World Report’s “America’s Best Colleges.”

Providence College was again ranked number two for “Masters Universities Northern” group.

Brown university came in at No. 14 in the “National Universities” category.

Roger Williams University ranked No. 9 in the Northern region of “Baccalaureate Universities.”

Its great to have such a small state so rich in higher education opportunities.  These rankings will continue to allow Rhode Island to draw in thousands of students each year.

Concerns from a Providence resident

Today’s Providence Journal features a letter to the editor from an irritated resident which touches on some important points the city leaders need to take into consideration. 

The author is a year long resident of Providence who moved down here from Boston since cost of living is lower, while still being able to enjoy a young, vibrant city.  He expresses several concerns:

Here is what this newcomer has seen and experienced in Providence:

• Insufficient police response to these muggings.

• An apparent lack of proper news coverage about this danger.

• Illogical overnight-parking bans that are downright anti-resident.

• Maddeningly, wildly inconsistent parking signage downtown, obviously a clever system of obtaining revenue for the city rather than upholding parking regulations.

• Drunk students that party all night, with obligatory police response that is effective for about five minutes.

• An antiquated motor-vehicle registry that reminds me of Massachusetts — about 30 years ago!

• A bloated state Department of Revenue bureaucracy that refuses to even answer the phone.

The tone of the letter is quite bitter, but I believe many of the Providence residents share in his frustrations. 

When deciding on a place to live, people look at several factors: school system, tax rates, job market, and safety. 

Our Providence school system is severely underfunded and not providing an adequate education, forcing many residents to send their children to private school.  Taxes have just been raised 4.25% which hurt residents and renters alike.  Overall the job market in Rhode Island is decent, but it is rather stagnant and not attracting new business (probably due to the high tax burdens). Lastly, the crime in our neighborhoods frequently goes ignored despite the city’s recent attempts to prove crime in the city is falling.

This letter touches on several of those factors, and unfortunately, the city has lost a resident who would probably be a good, tax-paying, law-abiding citizen. 

How many more residents share these frustrations? 

As a Providence College student, every year I see students flock to Boston or New York after graduation.  There are not very many graduates that stay around the greater Providence area.  It is not a resident friendly city which is a shame because it has many beautiful neighborhoods, a beautiful downtown, and easy access to other cities in New England.

Providence’s proximity to Boston and other New England towns make it a great location for those working somewhere else but want to enjoy a small city atmosphere.  The city needs to realize the advantages of living in Providence and provide an atmosphere that attracts residents rather than pushing them out.

There is a lesson to be learned from this letter that I hope our city leader’s recognize.  Running a city is a complex and difficult job, but there are basic resident friendly reforms that need to be made if Providence wants to continue to grow into a leading New England city.

Cianci hired by WPRO radio

We’ve all read the book.  We’ve all waited for his arrival in Providence. 

September 20 marks Buddy Cianci’s return to a quasi-public life hosting his own talk radio show on WPRO.

Cianci says he is choosing WPRO because it is the “heritage station of Rhode Island.”

I’m looking forward to hearing what he has to say, and his perspectives should stir some discussion.

Hillary’s new Iowa commerical

The text to one of Hillary’s first campaign commercial, ”Invisible,” has an interesting statement in it.

She says, ”And I never thought I would see that our soldiers who serve in Iraq and Afghanistan would be treated as though they were invisible as well.”

So would that explain then why she voted against funding our troops in Iraq?   

In her commercial, Clinton cites women who cannot afford childcare who are “forgotton” and all those without health care as “invisible.” She must see a difference in providing services for these people but not in giving our troops who are fighting abroad the resources they need.  This troubles me.

I’m not impressed.

–

You can view the full commercial here at your own risk. 

Lost generation or Reagan generation?

James Carville, Bill Clinton’s chief strategist in 1992, has placed a large burden on Karl Rove, blaming him for a lost generation of Republicans.  He writes,  

The evidence is now pretty conclusive that Mr Rove may have lost more than just an election in 2006. He has lost an entire generation for the Republican party.

A late July poll for Democracy Corps, a non-profit polling company, shows that a generic Democratic presidential candidate now wins voters under 30 years old by 32 percentage points. The Republican lead among younger white non-college-educated men, who supported President George W. Bush by a margin of 19 percentage points three years ago, has shrunk to 2 percentage points. Ideological divisions between the Republican party and young voters are growing. Young voters generally favour larger government providing more services, 68 per cent to 28 per cent. On every issue, from the budget to national security, young voters responded overwhelmingly that Democrats would do a better job in government.

I might first respond that Democracy Corps is his company.

More importantly is the innaccuracy of his thesis.

My generation was born under the Reagan administration, and we have risen up against the mainstream, progressive movement.  The College Republican groups nationwide are some of the most politically active groups in the country.  Young America’s Foundation, the Leadership Institute, and Clare Luce Booth Policy Institute were all founded to provide resources for young conservative activists, and they are thriving!

A UCLA Higher Education Research Institute report compares the percent of college freshmen calling themselves conservative in 1973 at 14% to the 21% currently.  History also proves that people generally become more conservative with age.  Once people start raising a family and paying taxes, many people are typically drawn more right.

There are certainly many polarizing events going on now that strongly divide this rising generation.  A recent discussion with several of my friends who are Democrats hit on this very point.  We concluded by agreeing to disagree on policies ranging from health care to the War on Terror, but all agreed that we’re tired of the infighting and political games going on in Washington.  Our hopes were that our rising generation will work together by holding real discussions on issues and finding real solutions.  In a way, we are going to have to considering the problems we will be facing: a broken social security system and health care system, and a high budget deficit financed by foreign investors.

As the political pendulum continues to swing back and forth, Carville’s belief is founded on short term popular trends, not on a long term vision of society.  Some young folks think its “cool” to not support the war, provide universal health care, and allow women to have abortions, but there is a large conservative right movement rising up to meet this challenge.  I argue my generation is more prepared to battle the left and more willing to do so than previous generations. 

We’re the children of Ronald Reagan and we want to take back the City on the Hill.

Evans’ 3 point plan for Providence schools

Despite budget cuts, the Superintendent of the Providence Schools, Donnie Evans, has announced a three point plan to improve the failing school district:

1.  Principals and teachers are to hold students to high expectations.

2.  Help principals and teachers use data to not only measure student performance, but to modify instruction based on the strengths and weaknesses of the students’ test data.

3.  Improve classroom teaching.

I’m glad Evans is interested in improving the school system, but these three points are quite ambiguous to say the least.  These should be done year after year to ensure that all students are getting the quality education they deserve. 

Teachers should be evaluated, students should not merely be passed through the school system, and parents should be involved in their child’s education career.  I realize it is much easier said than done when there are problems at home and limited income which may require students to work.  It comes down to the fact that the school system’s previous efforts are failing, funding is decreasing, state requirements have increased, and many of the students are apathetic toward earning an education.  Add all these together and Evans has his plate full.

Evans cites financial constraints as a major hindrance against improving the school system, meeting state requirements, and providing certain services the school system previously has had.