Hypothetical Caucus/Primary Outcome

By next week, we will have the winners of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.  Here are what the polls at Real Clear Politics are averaging:

Iowa Caucus
Mike Huckabee            28.3%
Mitt Romney                27.9%
John McCain                 11.6%
Fred Thompson            11.3%
Ron Paul                          6.7%
Rudy Giuliani                  6.3%

New Hampshire Primary
Mitt Romney                29.3%
John McCain                 26.5%
Rudy Giuliani                13.5%
Mike Huckabee            10.5%
Ron Paul                          6.3%
Fred Thompson                 3%

My own predictions are Huckabee takes Iowa and Romney takes New Hampshire.  However, I’ve heard word from a fellow College Republican who’s interning for John McCain in NH that his momentum has been surging in the last few weeks.  Increasing numbers at townhall events have lead the campaign increase its event facility size to capitalize on his jump in popularity.

I strongly believe that regardless of McCain’s surge, Romney will take New Hampshire; however, I wonder what would happen if by the off chance he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire. In the case that Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain wins New Hampshire, I think the nature of the primary politics will change. We then have states like Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida having more weight in determining our primary.  There will be no clear front runner until Super Tuesday unless three or four of those states go the same way.

Giuliani is raging a nationwide campaign and his moderate leanings may work well in Florida and on Super Tuesday, but his success will not result in a nomination.  Mike Huckabee will need the momentum of a win in Iowa and a strong finish in New Hampshire to make him a viable candidate on Super Tuesday where a stronger nationwide campaign will need to have been established.  Mike Huckabee’s a good candidate and he has the work ethic to go far, but money could hold him back if it takes until Super Tuesday to decide a frontrunner. John McCain’s momentum begins and ends in New Hampshire…enough said. Fred Thompson is too lazy to care about winning the nomination, we all know that.  Romney has the momentum, support, money, and drive to go all the way.  If he comes in a strong second in both of those states or wins one and loses one, I think he can still make it through to the end.  He has a very confident and optimistic campaign and as long as he limits the negative attack ads, he will do well this primary season.

So, if Romney does not do well in the next two elections I would not rule him out.  However, it will make for an interesting dynamic until after February 5.