Final numbers for Michigan’s primary are as follows:
Romney 38.92%
McCain 29.62%
Huckabee 16.1%
Paul 6.27%
Thompson 3.7%
Giuliani 2.85%
I anxiously watched the numbers come in last night because I knew this would be a major blow to the Romney campaign if it did not turn out in his favor. I think we’ve learned several lessons from Michigan’s primary.
First, Romney has momentum at this point which puts him in a competitive position for Super Tuesday. Exit polls indicated that 42% of Michigan voters considered the economy to be the most important issue facing our country. Clearly, Romney is strong on the economy and this is certainly what helped him win in Michigan. We’ve learned that we can’t say a win in one state gives an advantage over other candidates in the next state primary; however, this gives Romney the needed win to make him relevant for Super Tuesday.
Second, John McCain’s win in New Hampshire is likely a repeat of 2000 where we see him struggle in other primaries. I don’t foresee him winning in any other state before Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee was not putting his resources toward Michigan nor had a big appeal there so it is not surprising he came in third place. But considering the economy was a huge issue in Michigan, it is not surprising his message did not resonate well there.
Fred Thompson is counting on South Carolina, but I think that’s the only state he is capable of winning if even that. Thompson and Giuliani are struggling. They have both received such low amounts of votes in all three primaries thus far, that even if Thompson wins South Carolina and Giuliani wins Florida their appeal is so low that I do not foresee them being viable on Super Tuesday.
Now for the Democrat side…
Clinton 55.36%
Uncommitted 39.63%
Kucinich 3.66%
Michigan Democrats’ opinions have no weight for the convention because the DNC punished them for scheduling an early primary. Michigan lost all 156 delegates for the Democrat National Convention. As a result, several candidates did not choose to be placed on the ballot. I think the 39.63% of uncommitted voters is significant because it suggests that there is a large proportion of Democrat and Independent voters who, given limited options, still will not vote for Hillary. Clearly there was a degree of voters who voted uncommitted in protest of the delegate situation, but even more importantly is that Clinton received only a little more than half the vote of Michigan’s Democrats.
As I continue to say, it is going to take until Super Tuesday to have a frontrunner.
