Hillary visits my hometown

On the same stage I received my diploma, performed my senior showcase, and had countless cheerleading practices, Hillary Clinton addressed citizens of my town last night at 10:15PM appealing for their vote on next Tuesday’s election. 

I didn’t know people in Belpre stayed out past 10:00PM, but it looks like there was a decent showing.

 

There she is with Governor Ted Strickland and a few familiar faces behind her.  I like Governor Strickland a lot, he used to let me follow him around back when I was 11 and on through high school when he was still my Congressman.  I usually claim him as the one who got me interested in politics and consider myself lucky that he was tolerant of my interest as a young kid. 

Anyway, I want to know what the 1500 people packed in the Belpre High School gym last night think Hillary is going to do to help improve their life.

Belpre is home to about 6800 residents along the Ohio River in Southeastern Ohio.  Across the river is Parkersburg, West Virginia which consumes most of Belpre’s disposable income. Belpre is a dry town so there are no major restaurants, forcing weekend activity either across the river, or up the river to Marietta, Ohio.  The school system is small and getting smaller since it takes multiple times to get an operating levy passed, and provides only a few opportunities for advanced students.  Fewer kids usually go to college upon graduation than get married or go directly into the work force.  Recently about 10% or more join the military to serve our country.  The job market in Belpre consists of a few professional offices, but there are more pharmacies, gas stations, and used car lots than a town for 6800 would ever need.  Most people work at Kraton Polymers or another chemical plant on the river, or the Bureau of Public Debt (thanks to Senator Byrd) across the river. Belpre also is comprised of a growing elderly population, hence the need for pharmacies on every corner. So, in my opinion, what do the people of Belpre need right now? We need stronger schools, a stronger job market, and stronger health care and retirement systems.  What does Belpre NOT need right now? Hillary Clinton as President. Here’s why…

Hillary’s plan does nothing to empower American citizens.  Her plan for America is to provide a government that will provide for you. 

- She wants a Universal health care system that mandates every person buy health insurance and if you can’t afford it there will be government subsidies.
- It looks like the only jobs that she wants to create will be government jobs: infrastructure, “green collar,” etc.
- Increased regulation on the mortgage industry, credit cards, insurance companies, trade agreements, and China’s currency (whaaat?).
- Mandate businesses offer sick days to all employees and extend unemployment insurance.
- Tax profits on the pharmaceutical, oil, and gas industries. (See my previous article on Hillary and Obama taxing your retirement.)

Her plan for America tells me a few things.  She doesn’t want Americans to be self-reliant and independent like the Founding Fathers intended.  She wants us to depend on her government programs. Her plan for America is not pro-business or pro-growth. Even Business Week magazine says so.  Who would work if you can get everything you need by not working? Don’t have money for food? Get food stamps.  Don’t have insurance? The government will give it to you.  Need money to pay for heating? Hillary’s emergency energy assistance program will pay for it!  And I guess it doesn’t matter that she taxes the profits of big industries that we all have in our IRAs and portfolios since she’ll provide us with a retirement plan.  She allows no choice for individual choice, and she thinks that since the Bush government has failed that expanding it will only make us all better off. 

Belpre, Ohio’s needs are not far out of line of many small American towns. Many small towns are struggling to keep their identity in a changing world with global competition. But Hillary won’t help us whether we’re in small town America, suburban towns, or big cities.  She does not welcome free market initiatives, the very liberty that makes America great.  If America is manipulated into voting for Hillary by broad generalizations and politically charged talking points, we will lose the vibrancy of the American dream which is made possible because we live in a country that supports the free market, private initiative, and individual choice.  That may sound extreme, but I don’t think I’m being irrational. 

So before you cast your vote, think about which candidate will empower America to live the American dream, and I think you’ll find that Hillary Clinton is not that candidate.

Mike Huckabee: A candidate of extremes

I decided to venture down to Warwick on Monday evening to hear Mike Huckabee address Rhode Islanders and appeal for their vote.  It was an interesting crowd, and I only recognized a few faces who were there mostly out of curiousity like myself.  The majority of the crowd seemed to be average, working class Americans who were inspired by Huckabee’s American dream life and decided to support his candidacy. One man I talked to had even driven three hours from New York to hear Huckabee’s speech. 

This was the third time I’ve heard Huckabee speak in person, and like most politicians with comfortable talking points, it was the third time I’ve heard the same message. However, this time I started thinking about his platform and how it is ideally in line with many conservatives, yet it is not practical or realistic. 

Consider what defines him as a candidate.

- He supports a Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman.
- He believes in the Fair Tax which calls for repealing the 16th Amendment and will abolish the Internal Revenue Service.
- He also wants a Constitutional Amendment that protects the right to life.

During his speech in Warwick, these are the issues that he highlighted that make him stand apart from John McCain.  Mike Huckabee does have some beliefs that resonate with me and other conservatives. He supports a line-item veto, will make the Bush tax cuts permanent, will not set a time table for Iraq, wants to build a border fence, and believes in energy independence with free market solutions.  But it is not these issues that he talks about.  Most of these are very similar to John McCain’s platform, so he uses the extreme to distinguish himself.

The fact of the matter is that these three self-defining issues are not practical.  I am a Constitutionalist who believes that our constitution is not there to legislate morality, rather it is there to define our most basic fundamental liberties.  I agree with Mike Huckabee in that I am pro-life and do not think homosexual marriage should be allowed.  However, amending the Constitution should not be the vehicle to prevent this activity.  Changing this behavior starts with society and strong families.  In addition, amending the Constitution to include these amendments is nearly impossible.  This would require 2/3 vote of both the House and Senate, then 3/4 of the states to approve it.  Or, there could be a Constitutional Convention called by 2/3 of the states legislatures, but also this will need 3/4 of the states approval.  These are divisive issues and I do not think he has the slightest chance of getting it passed through our Democratic Congress and mostly Democratic state legislatures.  Mike Huckabee is as unrealistic as Obama’s platform of “hope,” whatever that might be.

Secondly, Mike Huckabee will not succeed in abolishing the IRS and implementing a Fair Tax.  This consumption tax and revenue neutral tax is a bad idea that will not fly with most Americans. He will face the same Constitutional difficulties of repealing the 16th Amendment that defines our income tax. So one would have to wonder if we would end up with an income tax and a consumption tax at 23%.  He says this will allow us to abolish the IRS but he is forgetting that someone will have to oversee who is spending what so that the monthly rebate checks for people below the poverty line and for all purchases of necessities are distributed properly.  This may not require a 67,000 page tax code, but it will require some tedious oversight and accurate record keeping.

I like Mike Huckabee a lot as a person and I, too, am inspired by him.  He is a product of the American dream. But I am also a realist and do not think he offers real solutions for America.  My ideology is not far out of line from his, but his methodology to enact it is not practical. 

I think most Americans have already realized this since he is all but out of the election right now. However, for my Huckabee friends in Rhode Island and Ohio who have yet to cast their vote, I hope you think again. 

Vote for Obama or Hillary if you want your retirement to be taxed!

Exxon Mobil $40.6 Billion
Chevron $18.7 Billion
ConocoPhillips $11.9 Billion

These numbers represent the 2007 profit of America’s top three oil companies. This alarms most Americans who feel cheated by paying $3 for a gallon of gas and live on tight budgets. But don’t worry, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will make it all better by taxing the profits on these big oil firms! They assure us that we’ll all feel a little better paying $3 a gallon as long as know big oil companies and high ranking executives are not making a profit off us!

But here some facts about oil and gas companies:
- The U.S. Oil and Gas Industry contributed $139 billion in GDP in 2002 and accounted for 1.5 million jobs in America, totalling $39.29 billion in income.
- The industry is already taxed at a rate of 38.3%.
- Other industries make higher profits. Banking profits 18 cents per US dollar, consumer services profits 10.1 cents per US dollar, software and services profit 9.9 cents per US dollar. Oil and Gas? 9.2 cents per US dollar.

A recent study by Robert Shapiro, undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs in President Clinton’s administration (yes, a Democrat), found that 55 million Americans with a median income of $68,700, 2,600 pension plans, and 45 million Americans’ IRAs, own shares in the oil and natural gas industry. These are fellow middle class people. So for all of you who cannot put two and two together, taxing big oil companies’ profits essentially taxes 55 million Americans, 2,600 pension plans, and 45 million IRAs who own these shares in their pension and retirement accounts.

Now look at these numbers:
Exxon Mobil $32.01 billion
Chevron $14.63 billion
ConocoPhillips $15.67 billion

This is the amount of dividends paid to their shareholders in 2000-2004 by Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and 2003-2004 by ConocoPhillips. If you increase the tax rate on these companies, dividends for each shareholder will automatically fall.

Big oil and natural gas companies have their shares divided as follows:

41% Pension and Retirement Accounts
29.5% Mutual Funds
23% Individual Investors
5% Institutional Investors
1.5% Corporate Investors

So, if you are one of those people who own stock in the oil industry, you may want to think again about supporting candidates who want to tax this industry. It will affect you! It would be a fallacy to think that your retirement will not see the affects of this. I’m merely presenting the facts, you can decide.

–
Sources:
http://64.233.169.104/search?=cache:3_hX95AynosJ:rpc.senate.gov/_files/Feb0706EnergyTaxPJMW.pdf+robert+shapiro+exxon+mobil&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=16&gl=us
http://energytomorrow.org/energy_issues/shapiro.html

Political Humor

Belpre, Ohio? or Batesville, Mississippi? 

Batesville, Mississippi. 

Although this guy may not be eloquent, I think he’s onto something…

Democrat delegate count to date

I’ve been wondering what the most recent delegate count is on the Democrat side, so here it is:

Overall
Obama 1,168
Clinton 1,018

Superdelegate
Obama 189
Clinton 256

Total
Obama 1,384
Clinton 1,300

Obama appears to have the momentum right now, he just won his 10th state in a row with Wisconsin the other night.  If this goes to the convention, I have no doubt Hillary will pull a backroom deal to sway the superdelegates.  But going on numbers alone, it is still unclear who the Democrat nominee will be.

Reflections on CPAC 2008 and McCain’s rise to the top

Anddd I’m back after a weeklong political hiatus.

After attending CPAC 2008, not only was I mentally and emotionally drained politically, but I picked up the nasty cold that is going around. So, I’m back and ready to go.

One of the most defining moments of my CPAC 2008 trip was witnessing Mitt Romney’s concession speech.  I did not have cell phone reception in the Regency Ballroom and so I did not get the countless text messages forewarning me of his concession an hour before it happened.  Romney’s speech was so dynamic and the response from the audience was genuinely enthusiastic…unlike McCain’s which consisted of half boos and half cheers from the crowd he bussed in to fill the audience. Besides Newt Gingrich, I would say that Mitt Romney received the best response from the crowd of all the speakers.  Perhaps this was because Romney was the only true conservative in the 2008 Republican race. Below is the video I captured of his concession.

 

 And yes, my shock is apparent by my gasp at the end. Go ahead and laugh.

Regardless, now that he is out I have started coming to terms with the likely McCain nomination and his possible presidency.  So far there are three things I like about John McCain:

1. He will not give in to the terrorists and is determined to win the war.
2. He has a proven record of fighting lobbyists and earmarks.
3. He has agreed to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.

I am still trying to learn more about his platform to convince myself he will be a fine president.  However, as of now I am voting for Mitt Romney in the March 4th primary since he is still listed on my Ohio absentee ballot.

One of the most obvious things to me at CPAC was that the conservative movement and Republican party is definitely split right now. There are those warhawks (and people in New Hampshire) who have always supported John McCain, but there are more of us who are fiscal conservatives and are concerned about illegal immigration who are not as happy about John McCain being the face of the Republican party.  John McCain knows this. He’s obviously working hard to bring in endorsements from well known conservatives, ie: George H.W. Bush, Mitt Romney. These endorsements do not mean much to me because they are nothing but attempts to unite the party.  They really tell me nothing about who ideologically aligns himself with McCain’s politics. Notice that he is being endorsed solely on his foreign policy stance.  I don’t hear endorsements based on his ability to bring back the U.S. economy, to end illegal immigration, to fix social security, or to fix our broken health care systems.  No one can argue that his military service to our country is uncomparable to most Americans’ and that he is the best candidate to lead our nation in a time of war. This will be a formidable issue for the Democrats who are soft on the war and want to negotiate with terrorists. If McCain wants to lure me and others with similar ideology, he needs to prove that he’s sympathetic to the conservative base. He can’t win without us.

Rhode Island College Republicans to attend CPAC

Today over 30 College Republicans from across the state will head down to Washington, D.C. to attend CPAC, the biggest conservative conference of the year. 

We will hear speeches from John McCain and Mitt Romney,  Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, John Bolton, and many other conservative leaders across the country.  This is also the first time in 35 years that both President Bush and Vice President Cheney will speak to all members of the group.

In addition to speeches, College Republicans will be trained on new website software available from the College Republican National Committee, will be invited to have lunch with Michelle Malkin through Young Americas Foundation, participate in a job and internship fair, and attend numerous parties and networking opportunities with other College Republican leaders across the country.

This will no doubt excite Rhode Island College Republicans to return to New England on Sunday ready for the rest of the year with new ideas and new friends.

Super Tuesday predictions

I’ve been looking at the data at Real Clear Politics and came up with a chart explaining my predictions but unfortunately I could not get it to fit the window.

Basically, I predict that Hillary and Obama are so close  that neither of them will emerge a frontrunner.  Hillary will end up with approximately 200 more delegates than Obama, but this will still be so far from the 2,500 needed that it will take until at least March 4th, and possibly the convention, for a clear frontrunner.  The Democrats’ proportional system is adding to the intrigue of  this race because both candidates earn relatively similar amounts of votes.  Delegates are allocated proportionally to the percentage of vote received.  In states like California where there are 441 delegates up for grabs and Clinton is polling at 40.8% and Obama is polling at 40.2%, they each will only receive around 170 delegates based on my calculations of current polling data, subtracting the 85 delegates that will comprise the remaining 20% of voters’ preferences.  If this was a winner-take-all state, a true Democrat front runner could emerge strictly from this state alone.  Other tight states include Missouri, Alabama, and Connecticut, all of which Clinton is leading but by a slim margin.  At the end of the day, I have 641 delegates going towards Clinton and 622 going toward Obama.  There are 268 delegates not included in those numbers, but they will likely be split fairly equally among the candidates.

Now for the Republicans. I hate to say it, but I think McCain will come out of tomorrow with nearly 500 delegates won, half of the total delegates up for grabs.  Romney will get the remaining 25-30% and Huckabee will get around 10% of the delegates.  New York, New Jersey, Missouri, and Connecticut are all winner take all states which is a good thing if you’re a McCain supporter because he is leading significantly over Romney in these states. This will solidify 241 delegates for McCain just in four states!  This momentum is what will propel McCain to be the frontrunner. I am still unsure why people vote for McCain in the Republican primary, but nonetheless, they do and these are my anticipated results.  Many people are starting to talk about a McCain/Huckabee ticket and hypothesizing that the reason Huckabee is staying in the race is to keep votes away from Romney.  I think its an interesting theory, and I would definitely agree to the latter part, but I do not think that McCain and Huckabee will be a ticket.  Huckabee is composed of many of the qualities McCain should be looking for: younger, Southern, former governor, likeable, and socially conservative; however, McCain needs someone that is strong fiscally if he wants to be a good candidate for the Republicans.  So, tomorrow night as I sit in front of my television, I predict that “Mac will be back,” that Romney will again be in second place, and Huckabee will still be saying he considers  himself a winner even at third place.

Delegates to date

Going into Super Tuesday, here is a list of current delegate totals.

Republicans:
97 John McCain
92 Mitt Romney
29 Mike Huckabee
6 Ron Paul

Democrats:
232 Hillary Clinton
158 Barack Obama

Republican candidates need 1,191 out of 2,380 delegates, 463 of which are unpledged. There are a little over 1000 delegates up tomorrow. Of the Republican elections, New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, are winner take all states.

Democrat candidates need 2,025 of 4,049 delegates, 796 of which are superdelegates. The Democrats award delegates on a proportional system, not winner take all. Therefore, it will be difficult for a winner to arise out of Tuesday’s nearly 1700 delegates up for grabs.

For more reading, I’d suggest USA Today’s analysis of the “Delegate Math.”

Super Tuesday States

Most people, including myself, cannot keep all the upcoming primaries straight.  Here is a list of the states holding primaries on Super Tuesday.

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho (Democratic Party Only)
Illinois
Kansas (Democratic Party Only)
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico (Democratic Party Only)
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah