Superdelegates are one source of division

Obama supporters are placing the blame on Hillary Clinton for dividing their party by staying in the race, just as Clinton’s supporters also are blaming the Obama camp for provoking this division. Meanwhile, us Republicans are sitting back laughing at the situation while we watch the Democrats duke it out all the way to the convention.

Everyone claims it will come down to the Superdelegates.  Take a look at some of my calculations. The CNN Election Center has the delegate total as the following:

Obama: 1629 total delegates, 1414 of which are pledged and 215 superdelegates.
Clinton: 1486 total delegates, 1243 are pledged and 243 superdelegates.

Then Edwards has 18 delegates floating around out there.

Just as a reminder, there are 4,047 total delegates to be won who will be voting in the Democratic National Convention. This includes 3,253 pledged delegates and 794 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,024. There are 596 pledged delegates left up for grabs and 336 superdelegates who have not yet pledged support for one candidate or the other.  This leaves Obama needing only 395 delegates to win the nomination, while Clinton struggles to gain 538 delegates.  Real Clear Politics has Obama up only 134 over Hillary, but for my purposes I am using the CNN tracker.

These numbers mean that Obama currently has 53% of the total allocated pledged delegates and only 46% of the superdelegates.  Lets pretend we use these percentages to forecast delegate totals. This gives Obama 316 pledged delegates and 154 superdelegates. This totals his delegate count to 2099. If the rest go to Hillary, she will come out with 1948. 

If the actual delegate count is relatively close to my numbers, there is no way that Hillary will drop out before the convention because she’ll think that she will be able to sway the superdelegates. Maybe that’s so; however, nobody has been talking about responsibility and potentially devastating effects that is in the superdelegates’ hands.

These superdelegates are supposed to be long time party activists and party officials.  They have this unpledged power because they are deemed to know the best direction for the Democratic Party.  If this is the case, I am wondering why they don’t all band together and say, listen Hillary and Barack, we’re supporting the delegate who has the most pledged delegates by the end of the primary season.  If they were truly looking out for the best interest of the Democrat Party, that is what they would do. Now, I am not politically naive and know that that could be a bad move for some of these superdelegates politically on a micro level. However, if the Democrats are so dead set that their policies and beliefs are the best ones for America, it should make complete sense for them to band together in an effort to unify their party.

Right now, McCain is a lucky man.  He has the luxury of sitting back and casually luring in the moderate Democrats who are tired of this party nonsense. You can see it in all the polls that he is inching ahead of both Democrat candidates. We all know that if the Democrat nominee is not decided until August 28, 2008 two months is not enough time to unite a bitterly divided party.  If I were Howard Dean, I think I’d be twisting the arms of the superdelegates to really do what is in the best interest of the party. But then again, most Democrats are too stubborn and clouded to realize this.