After attending CPAC 2008, not only was I mentally and emotionally drained politically, but I picked up the nasty cold that is going around. So, I’m back and ready to go.
One of the most defining moments of my CPAC 2008 trip was witnessing Mitt Romney’s concession speech. I did not have cell phone reception in the Regency Ballroom and so I did not get the countless text messages forewarning me of his concession an hour before it happened. Romney’s speech was so dynamic and the response from the audience was genuinely enthusiastic…unlike McCain’s which consisted of half boos and half cheers from the crowd he bussed in to fill the audience. Besides Newt Gingrich, I would say that Mitt Romney received the best response from the crowd of all the speakers. Perhaps this was because Romney was the only true conservative in the 2008 Republican race. Below is the video I captured of his concession.
And yes, my shock is apparent by my gasp at the end. Go ahead and laugh.
Regardless, now that he is out I have started coming to terms with the likely McCain nomination and his possible presidency. So far there are three things I like about John McCain:
1. He will not give in to the terrorists and is determined to win the war.
2. He has a proven record of fighting lobbyists and earmarks.
3. He has agreed to make the Bush tax cuts permanent.
I am still trying to learn more about his platform to convince myself he will be a fine president. However, as of now I am voting for Mitt Romney in the March 4th primary since he is still listed on my Ohio absentee ballot.
One of the most obvious things to me at CPAC was that the conservative movement and Republican party is definitely split right now. There are those warhawks (and people in New Hampshire) who have always supported John McCain, but there are more of us who are fiscal conservatives and are concerned about illegal immigration who are not as happy about John McCain being the face of the Republican party. John McCain knows this. He’s obviously working hard to bring in endorsements from well known conservatives, ie: George H.W. Bush, Mitt Romney. These endorsements do not mean much to me because they are nothing but attempts to unite the party. They really tell me nothing about who ideologically aligns himself with McCain’s politics. Notice that he is being endorsed solely on his foreign policy stance. I don’t hear endorsements based on his ability to bring back the U.S. economy, to end illegal immigration, to fix social security, or to fix our broken health care systems. No one can argue that his military service to our country is uncomparable to most Americans’ and that he is the best candidate to lead our nation in a time of war. This will be a formidable issue for the Democrats who are soft on the war and want to negotiate with terrorists. If McCain wants to lure me and others with similar ideology, he needs to prove that he’s sympathetic to the conservative base. He can’t win without us.
Today over 30 College Republicans from across the state will head down to Washington, D.C. to attend CPAC, the biggest conservative conference of the year.
We will hear speeches from John McCain and Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, John Bolton, and many other conservative leaders across the country. This is also the first time in 35 years that both President Bush and Vice President Cheney will speak to all members of the group.
In addition to speeches, College Republicans will be trained on new website software available from the College Republican National Committee, will be invited to have lunch with Michelle Malkin through Young Americas Foundation, participate in a job and internship fair, and attend numerous parties and networking opportunities with other College Republican leaders across the country.
This will no doubt excite Rhode Island College Republicans to return to New England on Sunday ready for the rest of the year with new ideas and new friends.
I’ve been looking at the data at Real Clear Politics and came up with a chart explaining my predictions but unfortunately I could not get it to fit the window.
Basically, I predict that Hillary and Obama are so close that neither of them will emerge a frontrunner. Hillary will end up with approximately 200 more delegates than Obama, but this will still be so far from the 2,500 needed that it will take until at least March 4th, and possibly the convention, for a clear frontrunner. The Democrats’ proportional system is adding to the intrigue of this race because both candidates earn relatively similar amounts of votes. Delegates are allocated proportionally to the percentage of vote received. In states like California where there are 441 delegates up for grabs and Clinton is polling at 40.8% and Obama is polling at 40.2%, they each will only receive around 170 delegates based on my calculations of current polling data, subtracting the 85 delegates that will comprise the remaining 20% of voters’ preferences. If this was a winner-take-all state, a true Democrat front runner could emerge strictly from this state alone. Other tight states include Missouri, Alabama, and Connecticut, all of which Clinton is leading but by a slim margin. At the end of the day, I have 641 delegates going towards Clinton and 622 going toward Obama. There are 268 delegates not included in those numbers, but they will likely be split fairly equally among the candidates.
Now for the Republicans. I hate to say it, but I think McCain will come out of tomorrow with nearly 500 delegates won, half of the total delegates up for grabs. Romney will get the remaining 25-30% and Huckabee will get around 10% of the delegates. New York, New Jersey, Missouri, and Connecticut are all winner take all states which is a good thing if you’re a McCain supporter because he is leading significantly over Romney in these states. This will solidify 241 delegates for McCain just in four states! This momentum is what will propel McCain to be the frontrunner. I am still unsure why people vote for McCain in the Republican primary, but nonetheless, they do and these are my anticipated results. Many people are starting to talk about a McCain/Huckabee ticket and hypothesizing that the reason Huckabee is staying in the race is to keep votes away from Romney. I think its an interesting theory, and I would definitely agree to the latter part, but I do not think that McCain and Huckabee will be a ticket. Huckabee is composed of many of the qualities McCain should be looking for: younger, Southern, former governor, likeable, and socially conservative; however, McCain needs someone that is strong fiscally if he wants to be a good candidate for the Republicans. So, tomorrow night as I sit in front of my television, I predict that “Mac will be back,” that Romney will again be in second place, and Huckabee will still be saying he considers himself a winner even at third place.
Going into Super Tuesday, here is a list of current delegate totals.
Republicans:
97 John McCain
92 Mitt Romney
29 Mike Huckabee
6 Ron Paul
Democrats: 232 Hillary Clinton
158 Barack Obama
Republican candidates need 1,191 out of 2,380 delegates, 463 of which are unpledged. There are a little over 1000 delegates up tomorrow. Of the Republican elections, New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, are winner take all states.
Democrat candidates need 2,025 of 4,049 delegates, 796 of which are superdelegates. The Democrats award delegates on a proportional system, not winner take all. Therefore, it will be difficult for a winner to arise out of Tuesday’s nearly 1700 delegates up for grabs.
For more reading, I’d suggest USA Today’s analysis of the “Delegate Math.”
Most people, including myself, cannot keep all the upcoming primaries straight. Here is a list of the states holding primaries on Super Tuesday.
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho (Democratic Party Only)
Illinois
Kansas (Democratic Party Only)
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico (Democratic Party Only)
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah
The Providence College Republicans and PC Democrats have worked diligently the past 2 days to register students as voters on campus. We set up a voter registration table in our cafeteria and plastered the campus with posters announcing the February 2 deadline.
Students were very receptive to us and very enthusiastic about voting in Rhode Island’s March 4 Presidential Preference Primary. Many students also commented on our bi-partisan teamwork to sponsor a non-partisan voter registration event.
All in all, we registered 100 voters to the Providence College address. PC students vote at the Schneider Arena in Providence’s Ward 14. PC Republicans and Democrats are not allowed to sponsor or endorse any specific candidate, but our registration drive will be followed up with publicity leading to the March 4th election.
I apologize for the lack of posts. I’d love to respond to the State of the Union, the proposed stimulus package, and Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama but I am swamped with work. Econometrics and meetings are taking over my life.
With all the media attention the Democratic primary is getting, it looks like the Clinton’s are over-shining Al Gore’s limelight once again, which means its time for him to provide his “expert” knowledge on climate change with a shocking new development…
“The climate crisis is significantly worse and unfolding more rapidly than those on the pessimistic side of the IPCC projections had warned us. There are now forecasts that the North Pole ice caps may disappear entirely during summer months within five years.”
It seems Romney has similar ideas for a tax relief package as myself. Although, his package is nearly $100 billion more than what President Bush proposes, he writes, ”The cost of a recession to the government is a lot larger than the cost of what I’m talking about.” He’s absolutely right.
Here is an outline of his stimulus package:
1. Allow any business to write off 100 percent of new equipment purchases for the next two years, retroactive to Jan. 1. This totals about $81 billion for 2008.
2. Cut the tax rate on businesses from 35% to 20% over two years, with the first 10-percent cut this year costing $51 billion.
3. Reduce lowest income tax rate from 10 percent to 7.5 percent, which would cost an estimated $28 billion.
4. Institute that rate for 2007 earnings, so that those earning less than $97,500 — the cutoff point for contributing to the Social Security tax fund — would receive a rebate of about $400 when they file tax returns this winter. This is approximately $22 billion for 2008.
In addition, he has already proposed a $32 billion in reduction of taxes on all saving for those individuals making under $200,000 annually.
The total of this is $233 billion or 1.7% of GDP.
Romney addresses both short and long term solutions to the economy in his stimulus package. The $400 rebate will provide a small short term boost, but he realizes the long term importance of capital investment. Because this focuses more on long term, it gives investors in America and abroad the confidence they need in American markets. It is a more stable plan. In addition, liberals like Hillary Clinton cannot argue that he’s leaving out 50 million low income Americans because this rewards all Americans making less than $200,000 annually who wish to save for the future. However, the downside of Romney’s policy is that I worry it would be difficult to get past our Democrat Congress and some of our Republican leaders. It is clearly pro-business, and many of our leaders seem to be anti-business and anti-growth.
Romney is a businessman who has proven that he knows how to manage money and succeed in private enterprises. I have no doubt he would be an asset in Washington and for all Americans.
It is no secret our economy needs a boost right now. The Dow Jones was down 4% just last week, the housing slump continues, our dollar is weak coming in today around $1.44 against the Euro, and oil, although its down a bit now to $89 a barrel, is still high enough to pinch the pocket books of many Americans.
We need a quick, non-partisan effort to stimulate our economy, and that’s what President Bush proposed on Friday.
To make a difference, his economists advised him that tax relief would need to be approximately 1% of GDP, which is $145 billion. This means American individuals would get a tax rebate of $800, and American families will receive $1,600. Currently, the President is negotiating the final details with House and Senate Leaders,Pelosi and Reid respectively before it hits the Congressional floor.
Several things come to mind when I hear about this stimulus package. I’m concerned it may be too little, too late. I wonder where the $145 billion is going to come from, and I am also concerned it won’t jolt the economy like its intended.
Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Paulson, said it will create 500,000 new jobs that otherwise would not be created. This may occur if people spend the money. However, consumers are forward thinkers and like to practice a smooth consumption pattern over time. Since this is a one time tax rebate, many people will save some of it, pay bills with some of it, and then spend the rest. A $800 tax cut really is not an $800 consumer spending spree back into the economy from a given individual. I would like to see this stimulus plan coupled with some incentives for capital investment. If this tax relief is planned to add 500,000 jobs, imagine what it would be if there was added investment directly into businesses. This will address the short run concerns I have about this short term bandaid. The problems our economy has now are not short term, so therefore a short term fix really doesn’t fix much. Added capital investment will provoke the economy long term and allow the economy to expand over the long run. More private investment means bigger firms with more jobs, therefore more tax revenue coming in through income, higher consumer spending results from more income, which requires more jobs and increases incoming tax revenue, and the cycle continues. So, although I do not disagree with the President’s plan, I am arguing for a harder nudge in the sides of our liberal Congress for a better tax relief package. I think most of our Congress realizes the dire need for this plan to go through quickly; however, we have some liberals like Hillary Clinton who is already complaining about the 50 million Americans who will not be included in this package. I’m sorry but if you’re a family of four making less than $24,500 a year, you’re not really paying into the tax system to be able to reap the benefits of a tax cut. This is a typical complaint from our liberal Senators and Congressmen who prefer government handouts and fixes rather than free market incentives. Global markets also have responded pessimistically to this plan today. Fears about our stability and late timing to this package have caused markets abroad to fall. Regardless of whatever the plan is, I just hope that politics is put aside so that this can be passed quickly and efficiently so that the stimulus will occur.
